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S&P500 Technical Analysis

Please look at all charts, monthly, weekly and daily before making your own conclusion. You can find HERE a description of the chart template used.

Daily Chart

02/04/2012

The chart template is explained HERE.

Last week I wrote: "I have the feeling that the correction is started. The put/call ratio both short and medium term are moving up with a flat price move. So, we have another warning for a down correction. Indicators are turning down. For now I think the total correction will be small (1280?)".

The index went down to 1300.49 on Monday and continued the up move since then. Looking at the evolution now I think we have an intermediate extension impulse wave up (green numbers) for wave 3 (blue numbers). We have a valid intermediate impulse wave 5 and impulse wave 3. We are probably close to the end of these waves (1360?) and we should next expect correction wave 4 down. I do not expect a large correction. Probably just back to 1300 once more before starting wave 5 up. Targets are 1440 and 1550.

Since we had a good profit last week already and expecting a correction I closed the long trade early and expect to go back in after correction wave 4.

The total closed profit trading the index is 76.5% from the start in March 2009.

We have to consider that it is not impossible that we are already making the long term [C] wave down. We will have to wait and see if this is the case. However, since the medium term is up, it may not yet be the case.

SATS5 is green, but we have closed the long position early. More information about SATS5 HERE.

Forex traders, here you find FOREX EUR/USD updated charts.

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Elliott wave count:
An optimistic possibility is that the index finished a long term correction wave [C] down in March 2009, now making a new long term wave [1]. An optimistic view since the correction wave [2] will be limited.
Or a second possibility is that we completed a long term correction wave [A] in March 2009, and that we are now making long term correction wave [B] up that will be followed by long term correction wave [C] down and we cannot exclude that this long term wave [C] down is already ongoing. This would be the worst case scenario with an index target below 650.

Pitchfork:
The index moves along the median line of the up moving pitchfork.

Fibonacci:
The index is passing the 161.8% Fibonacci target.

Trailing noise:
Moving up.

Support/Resistance:
There is support at 1280-1200-1160. There is resistance at 1360.

Indicators:
Indicators turned up.

Fast Stochastic RSI indicator:
Moving up.

Slow Stochastic:
Topping.

SVE_BBS%b Band Break System %b indicator:
Turning up.

BBS Band Break System Indicator:
Long level.

RSI(28) and Average(8):
Moving up.

Fast PCRI (Put/Call Ratio Indicator):
Moving down.

Slow PCRI:
Moving up.

SATS5 Expert:
The SATS5 expert is green, we have an open long position. History of all trades is shown at the bottom of this page.

Hourly Chart:

Trading Result

SATS5 Automatic Trading
Long	03/13/2009	10/02/2009	756.5	1025.20	268.7	35.0%
Long	10/09/2009	10/28/2009	1071.49	1042.19	-29.3	-2.7%
Long	11/10/2009	01/22/2010	1093	1092	-1	-0.11%
Long	03/02/2010	04/28/2010	1118.3	1191.3	72	6.5%
Long	06/14/2010	06/24/2010	1089.7	1073.7	-16	-1.5%
Long	07/08/2010	08/11/2010	1070.2	1089.4	-19.2	-1.8%
Short	08/11/2010	09/03/2010	1089.5	1104.5	-15	-1.3%
Long	09/03/2010	11/16/2010	1104.5	1178.3	73.8	6.7%
Long	12/02/2010	02/22/2011	1221.5	1315.4	93.9	7.7%
Long	03/29/2011	04/18/2011	1319.4	1305.1	-14.3	-1.0%
Long	04/26/2011	05/05/2011	1347.2	1335.1	-12.1	-0.9%
Short	06/08/2011	06/30/2011	1270.9	1320.6	-49.7	-3.9%
Long	06/30/2011	07/12/2011	1320.6	1313.6	-7	-0.5%
Short	07/29/2011	08/09/2011	1292.2	1110	182.2	14%
Short	09/22/2011	10/10/2011	1L129.5	1194.89	-65.4	-5.9%
Long	10/10/2011	11/17/2011	1194.89	1216.13	21.24	1.8%
Short	11/17/2011	11/28/2011	1216.13	1192.0	24.13	2.0%
Long	12/02/2011	01/27/2012	1244.28	1316.33	72.05	5.8%
				PROFIT	578.98	76.5%

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