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S&P500 Technical Analysis

Please look at all charts, monthly, weekly and daily before making your own conclusion. You can find HERE a description of the chart template used.

Weekly chart

02/04/2012:

PLEASE NOTE I have recently changed the chart template. It is explained HERE.

Last week I wrote:
"The start of the short term correction is probably started now reaching the median line of the up moving pitchfork and with the doji candle in this weekly chart. Based on the daily chart I do expect a (small) down correction. Medium term there is room for a further move up".

The small correction we got on Monday on the daily chart may be a smaller extension wave 4 (green) in the medium term wave 3 (blue) up. Both waves, 5 and 3 respectively are already valid. There is room on the weekly chart for a further move up to a first target of 1440. If our wave count is correct, we must however be aware of a correction wave 4 any moment.

I am using a weekly SATS5 expert on this chart. We have an open long position. This expert shows green candles for a long position, with a red candle you are out of any trades and with a black candle you have a short position. More information about SATS5 HERE.

Looking at the longer term Elliott count, a first possibility is that we are finishing the long term up wave [1] as indicated in the chart, next followed by a medium term correction wave [2]. This looks like an optimistic long term view, with a limited correction for wave [2] but probably to good to be true!

A second possibility is that we completed a long term correction wave [A] down and now making  a long term correction wave [B] up that we may have finished already with the top of wave (5). Next followed by long term correction wave [C] down. This would be the worst case scenario with a long term target below 650.

For FOREX traders, here I keep updated FOREX EUR/USD charts.

Elliott wave count:
The index finished correction wave [A] down and is making a long term correction wave [B] up. However, we have to keep in mind that correction wave [B] may be finished and we may have started long term wave [C] down already.

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Pitchfork:
The index is moving along the median line of the up moving pitchfork.

Fibonacci:
First target up is at 1430.

Trailing noise:
Moving up.

Support/Resistance:
There is support at 1220-1150-1100-1080. There is resistance at 1370.

Indicators:
Indicators are in an up move.

Fast Stochastic RSI indicator:
Topping.

Slow Stochastic:
Up move.

SVE_BBS%b Band Break System %b indicator:
Up move.

BBS Band Break System Indicator:
Buy long level.

RSI(28) and Average(8):
Moving up.

Fast PCRI (Put/Call Ratio Indicator):
Moving down.

 

Slow PCRI:
Moving down.

SATS5 Expert:
The long term investor on a weekly basis has a long term open long position.

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