Technical Analysis of the EUR/USD pair

This page will be updated regularly with up-to-date monthly, weekly and daily charts. You can find HERE a description of the chart template used.

Daily Chart

PLEASE NOTE I have recently changed the chart template. It is explained HERE.

February 04, 2012: Last week I wrote: "Contrary to the S&P500, there was a much higher closing on Monday in the EUR.USD. And since there was no correction started in the S&P500, the EUR.USD continued the up move. I expect next week a further up move to the upper side of the downward pitchfork and the 100 day average around 1.33. But probably already next week followed by a downward correction once the S&P500 starts moving down".

The down correction in the S&P500 was limited to Monday with a further move up the rest of the week. The EUR.USD did not follow this up move, but rather consolidated the strong move up of the previous week. The 50 day moving average is giving support. I do expect a further up move for the S&P500 (after a wave 4 correction). For that reason I think there will also be a further move up for the Euro the coming weeks. There will be resistance from the upper side of the down moving pitchfork and the 100 day average. Fibonacci targets are at 1.36 and 1.42.

It looks like we started the longer term wave [B] up. But! We still have to consider the possibility that the top in May was already the top of wave [B] and that we started the long term wave [C] down since then. If that is the case there will only be limited up correction moves during the long term down move. A target would be the 200 day average around 1.38.

SATS5 is green with an open long position. In the last downward move SATS5 gave a very nice profit of 630 pips.

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More information about SATS5 HERE.

Hourly Chart

Weekly Chart

February 04, 2012: on the weekly chart, price probably completed wave (C) and {B}, starting the longer term wave {C} up. All indicators are moving up. We can expect further higher Euro prices the coming weeks. But if we already made the top of long term wave [B], we have to be prepared for a longer term down move to complete wave [C]. There is some room in the Monthly chart for a long term continuation of the down move. Personally I rather go for the start of the wave {C} up.

The long term weekly SATS5 is black. More information about SATS5 HERE.

Monthly Chart

February 04, 2011: The Euro made a long term top Elliott wave [5] around $1.60 July 2008. A correction wave {A} was started, retracing almost 50% of the complete up move. Next the correction wave {B} retraced a big part of the {A} wave, before starting the {C} and with that completing wave [A] down. This [A] wave bounced up from the 50% retracement level and the 200-month moving average. The question is if the lowest level has been reached at that point. After an up correction wave [B], we will have the [C] wave down. Question is did we already finish the [B] wave up or not? The support of the 100 Month average is broken and we fell out of a previous up moving pitchfork. The evolution of the chart shows the intention of making an upturn. I think that February is going to bring higher Euro prices but there will be resistance from the 100 and 50 month average and the upper side of the down moving pitchfork.

The long term SATS5 expert is red for a long term open short position (Chart is updated until 02/03/2012)

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